Kennedy Agyapong overtakes Bawumia with 52.59% in new study
An independent researcher, chartered accountant, lecturer and financial economist, Dr Evans Duah, has released findings from a three-wave nationwide delegate preference study on the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primaries, placing flagbearer hopeful Kennedy Agyapong in the lead.
In a press statement, Dr Duah said the study was conducted between August 2025 and January 9, 2026, and tracked changes in delegate preferences following the NPP’s defeat in the 2024 general election.
The research compared current preferences with results from the party’s 2023 presidential primaries, offering insight into how delegates have reviewed leadership options during a period of adjustment.
Rigorous nationwide methodology
Dr Duah explained that the study used a multi-wave tracking design to reflect the gradual nature of post-election shifts in political preference.
The research covered all 16 regions and 276 constituencies, targeting all 40,988 NPP delegates nationwide.
A total of 31,556 interviews were completed, validated and retained after quality checks.
Data collection methods were kept consistent across the three waves to ensure comparability and reduce bias.
To address uncertainty, the analysis was done using two approaches: a Worst-Case scenario, which treated undecided and undisclosed respondents conservatively, and a Best-Case scenario, where such respondents were proportionally allocated.
According to Dr Duah, this approach allows for a clearer understanding of trends rather than relying on a single estimate.
Best-Case scenario places Agyapong ahead
Under the Best-Case scenario in the final wave, the national results were:
Kennedy Ohene Agyapong: 52.59%
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia: 36.24%
Dr Bryan Acheampong: 8.60%
Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum: 2.05%
Kwabena Agyei Agyapong: 0.52%
Based on these results, the study concludes that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong is on course to win the NPP presidential primaries and become the party’s flagbearer.
Post-2024 reassessment shapes the contest
The findings indicate that delegates have focused more on electability, regional balance, coalition appeal and the ability to rebuild the party after the 2024 elections.
Kennedy Agyapong recorded the highest positive movement across the three waves, with steady gains in delegate-heavy regions such as Ashanti, Greater Accra, Eastern, Central, Western and Volta.
The study links his rise to effective post-election positioning, consistent messaging on resilience and job creation, and strong grassroots engagement.
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, however, recorded a net national decline. While he remained strong in northern regions, the study shows reduced support outside those areas as delegates reviewed his electoral prospects after the 2024 loss.
Limited growth in southern and middle-belt regions, combined with regional weighting, affected his national momentum.
Dr Bryan Acheampong was described as a “systemic shaper” rather than a leading challenger. His support declined initially before recovering, largely supported by organisational networks and balanced regions.
Although not enough to challenge for the lead, his presence narrowed margins in some constituencies.
Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum recorded low single-digit support, mainly in parts of Ashanti and Greater Accra, linked to sectoral and relational networks that have not translated into broader appeal.
Kwabena Agyei Agyapong placed last with below one per cent support nationwide. His participation was described as symbolic, with no clear regional base or momentum.
From fluidity to consolidation
Commenting on the findings, Dr Duah said: “This study documents a transitioned contest from fluid reassessment to structured consolidation, grounded in verified data and transparent assumptions. Kennedy Agyapong’s lead exemplifies how early post-loss judgements and strategic engagement in delegate-dense regions drive durable outcomes, providing a factual terrain for the primaries ahead.”…CONTINUE MORE READING>>>