Ken Agyapong overtakes Bawumia in new NPP flagbearership race poll

Firebrand and former Assin Central MP, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, is currently leading the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearership race with 51.4% of delegate support, according to a preliminary survey by civil society group Sanity Africa.

The survey, carried out between April and June 2025, assessed voting intentions of delegates listed in the current NPP voter album ahead of the party’s presidential primaries. Agyapong’s closest challenger, former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, followed with 42.2%. The other contenders, Dr. Bryan Acheampong and Dr. Osei Yaw Adutwum, polled 3.1% and 3.0% respectively.

Sanity Africa, which is conducting the study in three phases, described the findings as a snapshot of early delegate preferences. The next phases are scheduled for October 2025 and January 2026.

Agyapong Leads Among Key Groups

According to the report, Kennedy Agyapong enjoys strong support among women (57.8%), youth under 40 (63%), students (58.9%), the unemployed (52.8%), and self-employed persons such as traders, market women, artisans, and farmers (55.5%).

Regionally, he leads in 10 out of the 16 regions, with significant support in the Central Region (68.1%), Western Region (59.5%), and Eastern Region (60.8%).

Bawumia Leads Among Employed and Older Delegates

Dr. Bawumia has stronger support among male delegates (48.9%) and those aged 40 and above, as well as among delegates in full-time employment (53.8%). He also leads among Muslim delegates, garnering 52.8% support on grounds of religious alignment.

Religion, Age and Work Status Are Key Drivers

The report notes religion as a key factor influencing delegate preferences. Agyapong is the preferred candidate for 61.6% of Christian delegates, who form a majority in the party. He also enjoys support from atheist and traditionalist delegates (55.1%), indicating his appeal cuts across religious lines.

Generational differences also play a role. While Bawumia leads among older voters (40–55 years and 55+), Agyapong dominates among younger delegates and those not in formal employment.

Regional Landscape

Dr. Bawumia leads in six regions, including Upper West (61.5%), Northern (50.8%), and North East (51.6%). In contrast, Agyapong holds a broader lead nationwide, particularly in Central, Western, and Eastern Ghana.

In swing regions like Savannah and Upper East, the race remains tight, making those regions critical for both camps moving forward.

Caution Ahead

Sanity Africa warned that the race remains fluid, and delegate sentiments may evolve as the campaign progresses. Future surveys will include additional delegate categories such as former appointees and ex-party executives, who are expected to be added to the voter album.

“The report offers a crucial starting point for tracking movements and understanding what drives delegate behaviour,” the group noted, adding that upcoming survey phases could reveal new alliances that will shape the NPP’s path toward the 2028 general elections.