Survey suggests Opoku-Agyemang, Bawumia could face off in 2028 election
A new survey has revealed that many Ghanaian voters would prefer a presidential showdown between Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang and former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the 2028 general elections.
The survey was jointly conducted by the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), a German political foundation. It explored voting patterns in the 2024 elections and examined succession preferences within the country’s two main political parties—the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
A total of 16,988 respondents from all 16 regions of Ghana participated in the survey. Most of the respondents were drawn from the informal sector, including traders, artisans, and farmers.
Among NDC supporters, Prof. Opoku-Agyemang emerged as the top preferred candidate to succeed President John Mahama, with 35.5% selecting her as the best option. She was followed by Haruna Iddrisu (14.9%), Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa (10.2%), Johnson Asiedu Nketiah (8.3%), and Julius Debrah (2.2%). However, a significant 25.6% of respondents said they were unsure who should lead the NDC into the 2028 elections.
On the NPP side, Dr. Bawumia led by a wide margin with 49.3%, followed by Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong with 24.6%. Other names mentioned were Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum (2.6%), Agric Minister Dr. Bryan Acheampong (0.8%), and former Energy Minister Boakye Agyarko (0.6%). Like the NDC, a sizable portion—21%—of NPP respondents said they didn’t know who should lead their party in 2028.
While enthusiasm for the 2028 elections remains high, the report warned of early signs of voter fatigue or declining interest compared to previous election cycles.
On what influenced voter decisions in the 2024 elections, 73% of respondents said party manifestos were a key factor, showing a growing emphasis on issues rather than just party loyalty. Another 46.2% said they were influenced by how likeable the presidential candidates were.
Dr. Joseph A. Darmoe, Director of Programmes at KAS and a Senior Lecturer at GIMPA, explained that the results indicate a shift toward issue-based politics. “Voters are moderately moving away from strong party affiliation… Party manifestoes are as critical as your campaign expenditure,” he noted.
Anna Lena Sabroso Wasserfall, KAS Country Representative, said the research was conducted to provide valuable data that political actors, civil society, the media, and citizens can use to understand and engage better with Ghana’s democratic landscape.
“Our motivation to carry out this study and to make an additional contribution to empirical political discourse in Ghana derives from our self-understanding as a political foundation,” she stated.