Mussa Dankwa, Chief Executive Officer(CEO) of Global Info Analytics has outdoored a report suggesting opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) may be the majority in parliament in 2024.
According to him, data suggests “NDC is united behind their candidates whereas NPP voters have abandoned their candidates while first-time voters, by nearly 17% percent, prefer to vote for NDC candidates” He wrote.
He added “Overall, 52% of voters say they intend to vote for NDC parliamentary candidates, this is slightly lower than those intending to vote for JDM, 53.2%, 1.2% better. 31% intend to vote for NPP parliamentary candidates, 29.6% intend to vote for DMB, thus DMB performing approximately 1.8% below his parliamentary candidates.”
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In the December 2020 national poll, voters who asked which parties candidate they intend to vote for in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Voters were also asked which party’s parliamentary candidate they voted for in the 2020 elections.
A cross-tab report produced below shows what has really happened, leading to NDC currently being projected to have majority in the next parliament.
Overall, 52% of voters say they intend to vote for NDC parliamentary candidates, this is slightly lower than those intending to vote for JDM, 53.2%, 1.2% better. 31% intend to vote for NPP parliamentary candidates, 29.6% intend to vote for DMB, thus DMB performing approximately 1.8% below his parliamentary candidates.
Analysis of the data reveals an interesting development and provides some explanations to the current situation. When those who voted for NDC in 2020 were asked which party’s candidate they intend to vote for nearly 91% said they will vote for NDC candidates, 6% will vote for NPP candidates 1% will vote for other candidates and 3% said they are yet to decide.
However for those who voted for NPP candidates, only 62% said they will vote for NPP candidates, 18% said they will vote for NDC candidates, 6% will vote for other candidates and 14% are undecided. Critically, among those who did not vote, 40% said they will vote for NDC candidates, 23% will vote for NPP candidates, 7% will vote for other candidates and 29% are undecided.
For those who appreciate data, this suggest three things, NDC is united behind their candidates, NPP voters have abandoned their candidates while first-time voters, by nearly 17% percent, prefer to vote for NDC candidates.
It will be interest to see how the results of the recent primaries which saw 28 sitting members of parliament lose their chance to represent their party will have on the outlook for parliamentary arithmetic.
Yesterday, we published status of Greater Accra and the Ashanti region. Today, we are providing the data behind those status.
For example in the Greater Accra, 61% of voters intend to vote NDC candidates compared to 23% for NPP candidates. Only 52% of voters who voted for NPP PCs in 2020 intend to do the same in 2024 compared to 96% for the NDC. 22% of NPP voters who voted for NPP candidates in 2020 have now switched to vote for NDC candidates while 6% of NDC voters are voting for NPP candidates.
The data from the Ashanti region is more disturbing for the NPP. Overall, 38% of voters intend to vote for NDC PCs while 43% intend to vote for NPP candidates, 5% will vote for other candidates and 13% are undecided. When data from how they voted in 2020 was analysed, the data shows that while 93% of those who voted for NDC PCs in 2020 intend to do the same in 2024, only 67% said the same for NPP candidates. 13% of those who voted for NPP candidates in 2020 intend to vote for NDC candidates, 6% will vote for other candidates and 14% are undecided. However, among first-time voters, 35% said they will vote for NDC PCs compared to 30% who said they will vote for NPP PCs.
This post provides some context to the report published yesterday and should answer many of the questions many of you may have. Please, if you don’t believe in data analytics, this wall is not for you
